First things first: while I wouldn’t say I’m not a ‘numbers guy,’ I’m certainly no forensic accountant – which you almost need to be to trace the funding crumbs through hundreds of pages of budget papers and previous government funding announcements.
Yet even with a healthy scepticism of my accounting prowess, one thing is clear to me: this Federal Budget offered Labor a significant opportunity to set out its policy agenda in full. And with cost-of-living and economic pressures front of mind for so many Australians, this Budget could play a major role in shaping how people vote in the upcoming election.
The Government has forecast an underlying cash deficit of $27.6 billion for 2025-26. While this marks a shift from the surpluses delivered in 2022-23 ($22.1 billion) and 2023-24 ($15.8 billion), it’s worth remembering that these were the first surpluses in 15 years, following nearly a decade of Coalition deficits. Even so, Treasury projections show Australia returning to deficit for the foreseeable future.
But beyond the headlines and household relief, you may be asking: what does this Budget deliver for First Nations peoples?
Before diving into the First Nations budget measures, it’s important to acknowledge the pre-budget submissions from many First Nations organisations across the country. As always, our communities approached the process with clear, consistent, and urgent asks – rooted in lived experience and largely aligned with the National Agreement on Closing the Gap.
These submissions included calls to properly fund Aboriginal community-controlled organisations (ACCOs) – particularly in health, justice, housing, child and family wellbeing, and early childhood. There was also a strong push for culturally safe and needs-based funding models, an overhaul of the legal service system, and investment in long-term, place-based solutions led by our communities. VACCHO, for example, argued powerfully for infrastructure investment – not just for our people to survive, but for our children, families and communities to thrive.
Taken together, these submissions were more than a wish list. They offered a blueprint for realising government commitments under the National Agreement. So did this Budget live up to those commitments?
In terms of First Nations budget measures, the Government announced $1.3 billion over six years in First Nations-specific investments. On the surface, that figure may sound substantial – but it quickly thins out across dozens of line items, many of which were previously announced.
A major component is the $842.6 million investment in the Northern Territory Remote Aboriginal Investment partnership. While this will fund health, safety, and education services in remote communities, $205 million is going to police – a move that has been rightly criticised by Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe as reinforcing over-policing and the criminalisation of Aboriginal people. This approach raises serious concerns about whether this funding will promote the Closing the Gap objectives, or rather risks undermining them.
The Budget also provides $506.4 million over five years to support various measures under the National Agreement on Closing the Gap, including:
While all of these measures are welcome, they’re not new. Most were flagged in the 2023 Closing the Gap Annual Report, the 2024 Implementation Plan, or through MYEFO announcements. In that sense, this Budget repackages existing commitments more than it reinvests or expands them.
And even the more promising funding initiatives – like remote nutrition programs or scholarships for mental health workers – only nibble at the edges of deep structural inequality. They are nowhere near the scale of what’s required to shift outcomes or dismantle the systemic disadvantage faced by many of our people throughout Australia.
The Budget did include a significant $5 billion investment in early education and care reform, which was welcomed by SNAICC CEO Catherine Liddle as a potential game-changer for First Nations children. But she also noted the missed opportunity to invest in reforming the child protection system – an omission that weakens the potential long-term benefits of early childhood investment.
This is a recurring theme in First Nations policy: modest progress in one area, while broader structural reforms are left untouched. Without addressing the systems that continue to harm our communities, improvements in early years may not be enough to shift the overall life trajectory of our young ones, who are ultimately our hope for the future.
Yes, mainstream budget measures – like investment in Medicare, student debt relief, and school funding – may deliver indirect benefits to First Nations people. But if nearly 20 years of Closing the Gap efforts have taught us anything, it’s that generic inclusion is no substitute for targeted, community-led investment. The gap exists precisely because of exclusion, dispossession, and systemic racism – challenges that require bold and direct responses.
This Budget offered no new funding for structural reform. No investment in voice, treaty, or truth. No commitment to a national truth-telling process. In the wake of the referendum and mounting evidence from the Productivity Commission’s 2024 Closing the Gap Review, this Budget was an opportunity for the Government to move beyond performative and ‘business as usual’ approaches to improving First Nations outcomes.
Instead, we’re left with modest measures, previously announced initiatives, and an enduring failure to reckon with the full cost of the historical and ongoing injustices inflicted upon First Nations children, families and communities.
